Johnson Progress

Zimbabwe is likely to experience tropical cyclones in the 2025/26 rainfall season, with the Meteorological Services Department (MSD) warning communities in flood-prone areas to heed alerts from the Department of Civil Protection (DCP).

According to the Famine Early Warning System Network (Fews Net), a weak La Niña is expected, bringing normal to above-normal rainfall across the country.

The MSD anticipates that the cyclones may mainly affect the eastern parts of Zimbabwe, with forecasts showing high chances of tropical cyclones in southern Africa.

MSD director Rebecca Manzou emphasized the importance of preparedness, citing the devastating impact of Cyclone Idai, which claimed about 300 lives in Chimanimani district, Manicaland province, in 2019.

“From what happened during Cyclone Idai, people refused to move from their areas. If you are told to move to protected areas, do that because you cannot decide on your own, which area is safe,” Manzou said.

The MSD forecasts a delayed, erratic start to the season with initial dry conditions in October-November, followed by improved prospects nationally from December onwards.

However, northern areas may dry out again later in the season.

“Thus overall, for the first half of the season, the southern and western regions are anticipated to receive normal to above-normal rain; while the northern provinces will have normal to below-normal rainfall,” MSD said.

The World Food Programme (WFP) has donated three Toyota Land Cruiser vehicles to MSD to strengthen its mobility and early warning capacity.

WFP deputy country director Billy Mwiinga highlighted the importance of reliable mobility in reaching remote areas and delivering timely information to help communities prepare for climate-related shocks.

“These vehicles are more than just a means of transport. They are a tangible investment in our continued and growing collaboration with MSD in strengthening climate services and early warning systems in Zimbabwe,” Mwiinga said.

Manzou noted that while the exact intensity and distribution of the cyclones are yet to be determined, the department is anticipating their occurrence.

“From what we are seeing, though, the high temperatures, there are going to be a few cyclones, yet we do not know the intensity and distribution, but we are just anticipating that they will be there because of the energy present in the atmosphere,” she said.

The MSD will meet with the Sadc community next week to discuss forecasting for tropical cyclones.